Lập trường cạnh tranh của người bán PVC Trung Quốc khiến giá không ngừng trượt dốc ở châu Á

Tại châu Á, giá PVC đã có xu hướng trượt dốc không ngừng kể từ nửa cuối tháng 4. Điều này chủ yếu là do các báo giá cạnh tranh của người bán Trung Quốc tại các thị trường trong khu vực, đặc biệt là Ấn Độ vì nhu cầu yếu và tình trạng dư cung tại nước này.

Trong khi mùa mưa ở Ấn Độ và những mối lo ngại về Covid-19 mới ở Trung Quốc đã tiếp tục làm tê liệt nhu cầu trong khu vực, áp lực lạm phát và đà giảm giá dầu thô đã tác động thêm tới xu hướng giảm giá kéo dài.

Báo giá FOB Trung Quốc chạm mức thấp mới

Để duy trì khả năng cạnh tranh tại thị trường trọng điểm Ấn Độ, người bán Trung Quốc đã tiếp tục giảm các báo giá xuất khẩu trong tuần này. Một người bán cho biết: “Có rất nhiều báo giá cạnh tranh trên thị trường Ấn Độ và người mua đã tạm ngừng để đợi các báo giá thậm chí thấp hơn.”

Giá PVC gốc ethylene giao ngay được ước tính giảm 120-140 USD/tấn so với tuần trước, xuống 960-990 USD/tấn trong khi giá PVC gốc acetylene được ước tính giảm 60-80 USD/tấn, xuống mức 930-960 USD/tấn, đều theo phương thức FOB Trung Quốc, tiền mặt.

Một số người tham gia thị trường Ấn Độ đã nhấn mạnh rằng báo giá FOB Trung Quốc sẽ giảm sâu hơn nữa trong những ngày tới, do mức giá PVC tương lai gần đây ở Trung Quốc.

Đà giảm giá Đại Liên ảnh hưởng tới các thị trường PVC nội địa của Trung Quốc

Tại Trung Quốc, giá K67 gốc ethylene đã giảm 400-450 CNY/tấn (60-67 USD/tấn) so với tuần trước và được ước tính đạt 7400-7650 CNY/tấn (978-1010 USD/tấn chưa bao gồm VAT) theo phương thức xuất kho Trung Quốc, tiền mặt bao gồm VAT. Đối với PVC gốc acetylene, giá giao ngay đã giảm 500 CNY/tấn (75 USD/tấn), xuống 7000-7300 CNY/tấn (925-964 USD/tấn chưa bao gồm VAT) theo phương thức tương tự.

Giá PVC tương lai tháng 9 trên Sàn giao dịch Hàng hóa Đại Liên đã giảm 607 CNY/tấn (90 USD/tấn) so với tuần trước tính đến ngày 6 tháng 7, xuống còn 6692 CNY/tấn (883 USD/tấn chưa bao gồm VAT).

Một người bán lưu ý: “Giá PVC nội địa của Trung Quốc đã giảm hơn nữa trong tuần này, do giá PVC tương lai suy yếu. Các nhà sản xuất tiếp tục duy trì hàng tồn kho cao trong khi nhu cầu vẫn tiếp tục giảm. Đợt tái bùng phát dịch Covid-19 đã làm mất niềm tin vào sự phục hồi nhu cầu của Trung Quốc.”

Phân khúc thấp của báo giá CIF Ấn Độ đạt gần mốc 1100 USD

Do vẫn chịu áp lực từ tình trạng dư cung của Trung Quốc, thị trường PVC của Ấn Độ đã kéo dài xu hướng giảm giá sang tháng 7. Khoảng báo giá chung của PVC nhập khẩu được ước tính giảm 60 USD/tấn so với tuần trước, xuống mức 1110-1200 USD/tấn CIF.

Sự suy yếu của đồng rupee so với USD cũng khiến lượng mua hàng nhập khẩu trở nên khó khăn hơn, khiến người mua đứng ngoài cuộc. Đồng rupee đã giảm xuống mức thấp lịch sử khác vào thứ 3, nhỉnh dưới 79,40 INR so với đồng USD. Các chuyên gia đang dự đoán đồng rupee sẽ sớm giảm xuống dưới mốc 80 INR/USD.

Việc chạm đáy không diễn ra

Những người tham gia thị trường Ấn Độ đã nghĩ rằng hiện tại giá không có khả năng chạm đáy. Một nhà kinh doanh cho biết: “Trên thực tế, những người tham gia thị trường cho rằng giá có thể tiếp tục giảm. Một số nhà kinh doanh đang dự đoán giá sẽ giảm xuống mức thấp là 1000 USD/tấn vào tháng 9.”

Xu hướng thị trường Đông Nam Á không khác biệt

Tại Đông Nam Á, giá nhập khẩu của tất cả các xuất xứ cũng được ước tính giảm 60-70 USD/tấn so với tuần trước, xuống mức 1050-1110 USD/tấn CIF, tiền mặt.

Một nhà chuyển đổi ở Thái Lan cho biết: “Giá tiếp tục giảm do nhu cầu đối với các sản phẩm cuối cùng rất yếu. Chúng tôi không dám mua thêm nguyên liệu và hiện muốn duy trì tâm thế chờ đợi và theo dõi.”

Những dự báo ban đầu đối với việc định giá tháng 8 gợi ý về đợt giảm giá mới

Một số người tham gia thị trường trong khu vực đã bắt đầu bày tỏ dự báo liên quan đến việc định giá tháng 8 của một nhà sản xuất Đài Loan lớn, chủ yếu gợi ý về một đợt giảm giá mới. Điều này cũng củng cố xu hướng trượt giá hiện tại.

Bên cạnh đó, tháng 7 là lần giảm giá thứ ba liên tiếp từ nhà sản xuất lớn này, cho thấy mức giảm hàng tháng là 90 USD/tấn đối với tất cả các thị trường. Nhà sản xuất này đã giảm giá 130-150 USD/tấn cho tháng 6, một tháng sau khi giảm giá 50-80 USD/tấn cho tháng 5.

Được viết bởi Pınar Polat – [email protected]

Nguồn: https://www.chemorbis.com/vi/

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