Thị trường PVC của Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ giảm xuống mức thấp nhất trong một năm qua, điều gì diễn ra trong thời gian tới?

Giá PVC đã giảm không ngừng kể từ giữa tháng 4 tại Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ, trong khi mức giảm lũy kế đã lên tới 20-21% kể từ thời điểm đó. Thị trường rõ ràng đã không suy chuyển trước sự phục hồi ngắn ở thị trường nội địa và xuất khẩu của Trung Quốc vào đầu tháng này, xuất phát từ việc dỡ bỏ các đợt phong tỏa.

Điều này chủ yếu là do lượng tiêu thụ thấp hơn ở các thị trường cuối cùng trong nước bao trùm thị trường trong bối cảnh áp lực lạm phát và người bán cần tiền mặt.

CIF Turkey – Import Prices – PVC K67 – Local Prices – ex-warehouse
* Nhấp chuột phải vào hình ảnh và mở trong tab mới để xem ảnh chụp nhanh có kích thước đầy đủ.

K67 nhập khẩu giảm thêm 10% trong nửa đầu tháng 6

Giá cả đã tiếp tục đi xuống trong tháng 6 do người bán phải chống chọi với nhu cầu thấp. Lạm phát cao cùng với sự mất giá của đồng lira Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ so với USD đã khiến hoạt động này gắn liền với nhu cầu cơ bản. Tác động thêm tới tình hình này là sự chậm chạp của thị trường cuối cùng trong nước.

Dữ liệu trung bình hàng tuần từ ChemOrbis cho thấy, các mức giảm hơn nữa đã đưa thị trường PVC nhập khẩu xuống mức thấp nhất kể từ tháng 7 năm 2021.

K67 miễn thuế được ước tính giảm 30-50 USD/tấn so với tuần trước, xuống mức 1600-1650 USD/tấn CIF Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ, tiền mặt do các lô hàng của Ai Cập cũng như K67 của Mexico có ATR tiếp tục đi xuống. Các giao dịch rất hiếm, vào khoảng 1600 USD/tấn. Theo một số người tham gia thị trường, giá dưới mức 1600 USD/tấn có thể dành cho những người mua quy mô lớn.

Các nỗ lực để đạt được mức giá bằng/trên 1650 USD/tấn từ các nhà cung cấp châu Âu đã không thành công bất chấp khối lượng khiêm tốn từ khu vực. Trên thực tế, nhu cầu PVC đã suy yếu tại các thị trường giao ngay trong khu vực trước kỳ nghỉ hè trong khi lạm phát cao ảnh hưởng đến tiêu thụ nhựa bất chấp một số trục trặc trong sản xuất.

PVC Trung Quốc vẫn cạnh tranh ở phân khúc thấp

Mặc dù một số nhà kinh doanh cho biết giá xuất khẩu ra khỏi Trung Quốc đã tăng so với đầu tháng 6, song báo giá PVC K67 của Trung Quốc đã giảm thêm xuống chủ yếu ở mức 1475-1520 USD/tấn CIF trong tuần này. Giá thấp hơn nhiều ở mức 1400-1430 USD/tấn cũng đã được chứng kiến rộng rãi cho các lô hàng muộn hơn vào cuối tuần.

Điều này bất chấp việc cải thiện tâm lý một cách thận trọng ngay sau khi Trung Quốc dỡ bỏ các đợt phong tỏa vào đầu tháng 6. Trên thực tế, các ổ dịch Covid mới đã dẫn đến việc xét nghiệm trên diện rộng và các biện pháp ở một số vùng của nước này và đã ảnh hưởng tới đà phục hồi trong thời gian gần đây. Các báo giá tháng 7 từ một nhà sản xuất Đài Loan lớn dự kiến sẽ xuất hiện vào tuần tới trong bối cảnh nhiều dự báo trái chiều.

Báo giá của Mỹ giảm mạnh do bán tháo

Theo một số người tham gia thị trường, việc bán tháo K67 của Mỹ đã tăng tốc, và giá đã giảm xuống dưới ngưỡng 1500 USD/tấn đối với hàng hóa có thời gian giao hàng lâu hơn.

Khoảng giá hàng chịu thuế tính chung đã giảm 35-50 USD/tấn so với tuần trước, xuống 1475-1560 USD/tấn CIF. K67 của Nga được báo cáo thấp hơn đối với các lô hàng mới, ở mức 1525–1550 USD/tấn, trong khi hàng giao nhanh giảm xuống 1590–1600 USD/tấn FCA.

Người mua duy trì lượng mua theo nhu cầu hạn chế

Người mua ưu tiên đáp ứng nhu cầu khiêm tốn của họ ở phân khúc thấp của thị trường với những nguyên liệu giao nhanh hoặc ở gần do nhu cầu hạ nguồn trong nước yếu. Mặt khác, các nhà sản xuất khẳng định nhận thấy nhu cầu cao hơn từ các thị trường xuất khẩu.

Trong khi đó, một số nhà chuyển đổi có kế hoạch tạm ngừng các nhà máy để nghỉ lễ Eid al-Adha sẽ được tổ chức vào ngày 9-12 tháng 7 năm 2022.

K67 nội địa giảm hơn 500 USD/tấn trong 2 tháng

Xu hướng giảm giá nhập khẩu đã phản ánh lên thị trường PVC nội địa do người bán nhắm tới mục tiêu thúc đẩy doanh số bán hàng. PVC K67 đã giảm xuống dưới ngưỡng 2000 USD/tấn bao gồm VAT do một số thỏa thuận đối với nguyên liệu trong nước. Khoảng giá chung được ước tính giảm 30-40 USD/tấn so với tuần trước, xuống 1980-2080 USD/tấn xuất kho Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ, bao gồm VAT.

Cả nhà phân phối và nhà sản xuất trong nước, Petkim, đã tiếp tục áp dụng chính sách giá linh hoạt nếu người mua trả giá. Một người tham gia thị trường cho biết: “Nguồn cung K70 có vẻ cao trong khi nhu cầu vẫn yếu.”

Tâm lý trong ngắn hạn vẫn yếu

Thị trường thiếu niềm tin vào triển vọng nhu cầu trong ngắn hạn, trong khi triển vọng trung hạn không rõ ràng. Bối cảnh mập mờ này bắt nguồn từ những bất ổn về tính bền vững của đà phục hồi ở Trung Quốc và chính sách tiếp theo của nhà sản xuất Đài Loan lớn trong bối cảnh mùa mưa ở Ấn Độ.

Hoạt động trầm lắng ở châu Âu cùng với nhu cầu toàn cầu thấp đối với hàng hóa Mỹ do hoạt động logistics rắc rối khiến người mua cho rằng đà giảm giá ở Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ có thể chưa dừng lại. Thêm vào bối cảnh này là sự biến động kinh tế và kỳ nghỉ lễ Eid al-Adha gần kề vào tháng 7.

Một nhà sản xuất thanh profile cho biết: “Năm ngoái, thị trường đã tăng đột biến ngay sau kỳ nghỉ lễ, nhưng mức tiêu thụ hiện không hỗ trợ cho sự phục hồi. Chúng tôi dự định theo dõi nguồn cung toàn cầu.”

Được viết bởi Merve Madakbaşı – [email protected]

Nguồn: https://www.chemorbis.com/vi/

176 thoughts on “Thị trường PVC của Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ giảm xuống mức thấp nhất trong một năm qua, điều gì diễn ra trong thời gian tới?

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