Khi tác động ngày càng gia tăng của đại dịch thay đổi các khía cạnh chính của giao thương và sự mất cân bằng cung/cầu đã để lại dấu ấn trên các thị trường hóa dầu toàn cầu trong năm 2021, chúng ta hãy xem xét một số nguyên tắc cơ bản sẽ tạo ra tiếng vang trên thị trường vào năm 2022.
Mọi thứ có thể diễn ra như thế nào trong môi trường kinh tế năm 2022?
Sự phục hồi kinh tế toàn cầu dự kiến sẽ chiếm ưu thế trong suốt năm 2022, mặc dù các chính sách thắt chặt tiền tệ được đưa ra để kiềm chế lạm phát. Tuy nhiên, các nhà kinh tế chỉ ra hàng loạt sóng gió bao gồm các biến thể mới, áp lực lạm phát, khả năng tăng lãi suất của Fed, sự sụt giảm tài sản của Trung Quốc và những mối lo ngại về địa chính trị có thể làm chậm tốc độ tăng trưởng.
Các quốc gia châu Á đang cố gắng ngăn chặn Omicron trong khi biến thể đang hoành hành này đã dẫn đến một lệnh phong tỏa ở Trung Quốc và việc tái áp đặt các biện pháp ở nơi khác để ngăn chặn sự lây lan của virus. Điều này có nghĩa là khả năng tiếp tục gián đoạn chuỗi cung ứng và tình trạng khan hàng sẽ gia tăng nếu có nhiều lệnh phong tỏa hơn gây ra bởi các biến thể mới.
Mối đe dọa của lạm phát và tác động của nó đối với tỷ giá cũng sẽ được theo dõi sát sao. Các đợt tăng lãi suất tiềm tàng của Fed, có thể là ba lần vào năm tới, nhằm chống lạm phát và kế hoạch của chính phủ nhằm cắt giảm các biện pháp kích thích thời đại dịch không chỉ đặt ra thách thức cho nền kinh tế Mỹ về lâu dài mà còn có nguy cơ làm chậm đà tăng trưởng của các nền kinh tế mới nổi. Điều này là do tỷ giá cao hơn thúc đẩy USD và kích hoạt dòng vốn chảy ra ngoài cũng như biến động tiền tệ ở các thị trường mới nổi.
Sự phục hồi sau COVID của Trung Quốc đã bị ảnh hưởng bởi các đợt phong tỏa do virus gây ra, tình trạng thiếu hụt năng lượng và các vấn đề nợ của Evergrande trong năm 2021. Sự sụt giảm bất động sản và chiến lược zero-covid có thể ảnh hưởng đến tăng trưởng và làm chao đảo các thị trường toàn cầu.
Những khó khăn về logistic chiếm ưu thế
Chuỗi cung ứng đã có sự gián đoạn vô cùng lớn trong suốt năm 2021 do tồn đọng vận chuyển kéo dài. Mặc dù sự tắc nghẽn vận chuyển đã giảm nhẹ vào cuối năm nhưng chi phí vận chuyển vẫn tăng cao. Tiêu chuẩn toàn cầu của Drewry đã đạt mức cao nhất mọi thời đại vào tháng 9 năm 2021 sau khi tăng hơn 500% so với nửa đầu năm 2020. Cước phí vận tải hiện cho thấy mức giảm 11% so với mức đỉnh tháng 9, nhưng chúng vẫn cao hơn 170% so với cùng kỳ của năm ngoái.
Việc vận hành cảng và vận tải đường bộ có thể dễ dàng bị gián đoạn nếu có các lệnh phong tỏa và những biện pháp hạn chế khác. Theo những người tham gia thị trường, việc di chuyển hàng hóa mất nhiều thời gian hơn bình thường do tác động dai dẳng của Covid-19.
Theo Bloomberg, trước đại dịch, sẽ mất khoảng 45 ngày kể từ khi hàng hóa được nhận tại một nhà máy ở châu Á để rời các cảng Bờ Tây nước Mỹ bằng đường sắt hoặc xe tải đến nhà kho; hiện nay, nó mất 105 ngày.
Sự thuyên giảm hoạt động logistic ngay lập tức được cho là không có khả năng xảy ra nếu các quốc gia tái áp đặt các hạn chế. Ngành công nghiệp logistic sẽ cần phải mở rộng giới hạn của mình do thực tế là việc đại tu cơ sở hạ tầng trong dài hạn cần nhiều thời gian, chưa nói đến sự gia tăng liên tục trong chi tiêu của người tiêu dùng.
Theo một chuyên gia trong ngành báo cáo với Bloomberg, giải pháp dài hạn cho logistic là đầu tư vào nâng cấp tại các cảng, bao gồm thiết kế lại để cho phép các tàu lớn hơn, bổ sung thêm không gian bến bãi và nhiều cần cẩu hơn đồng thời xây dựng các cơ sở và điểm tiếp cận nội địa. Chuyên gia này nói: “Dự luật về cơ sở hạ tầng sẽ hữu ích, nhưng thời hạn là 10 năm, không phải 10 tháng.”
Giá dầu sụt giảm
Các quan điểm về triển vọng nhu cầu đối lập với trọng tâm là biến thể Omicron mới. Cơ quan Năng lượng Quốc tế (IEA) và Cơ quan Quản lý Thông tin Năng lượng Hoa Kỳ (EIA) đều giảm dự báo nhu cầu dầu của họ cho đến tháng 3 do sự gia tăng số ca nhiễm và những hạn chế mới đối với việc đi lại quốc tế.
Lạm phát toàn cầu và tắc nghẽn nguồn cung, các vấn đề giao thương đang diễn ra và tác động của chúng đối với các yêu cầu về nhiên liệu công nghiệp và giao thông đang ảnh hưởng tới các ước tính năng lượng. EIA dự báo giá dầu thô sẽ giảm xuống 63-68 USD/thùng vào năm 2022.
Tuy nhiên, OPEC đã nâng dự báo nhu cầu dầu cho quý 1 năm 2022, nhấn mạnh rằng tác động của biến thể Omicron mới đối với nhu cầu dầu sẽ nhẹ nhàng và tồn tại trong thời gian ngắn vì thế giới đã được trang bị tốt hơn trong việc kiểm soát Covid-19 và những thách thức liên quan.
OPEC cũng dự đoán mức tiêu thụ dầu của Trung Quốc và các nước châu Á không thuộc OECD sẽ tăng vọt. Bất chấp kịch bản khả quan của OPEC, cũng có những báo cáo cho thấy mức tiêu thụ dầu của Trung Quốc sẽ chậm lại trong quý đầu tiên do các biện pháp và lệnh phong tỏa nghiêm ngặt hơn. Thế vận hội Mùa đông, diễn ra vào tháng 2, sẽ là một động lực lớn cho nền kinh tế, nếu không có chính sách zero-covid và các hạn chế nhập cảnh. Các kế hoạch của chính phủ nhằm giảm ô nhiễm không khí trước sự kiện này đã làm giảm công suất vận hành và hạn chế nhu cầu dầu.
Được viết bởi Manolya Tufan – [email protected]
Nguồn: https://www.chemorbis.com/vi/
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