Thị trường PE của Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ hầu như bình ổn vào đầu tháng 7

Xu hướng giảm giá trên thị trường PE Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ đã giảm tốc độ trong những tuần gần đây. Áp lực tồn kho gia tăng cường lên các nhà sản xuất hạt nhựa, chuỗi tăng giá ở phân khúc thượng nguồn và sự phục hồi thận trọng ở Trung Quốc đã hỗ trợ người bán. Mặc dù hầu hết báo giá tháng 7 đã giảm xuống, đặc biệt là đối với LDPE, song đây có thể là tháng giảm giá cuối cùng.

Mức giá đã có những thay đổi nhỏ đối với LLDPE, HDPE

Các mức giá mới đã bắt đầu hình thành khi hầu hết các nhà sản xuất PE Trung Đông đã công bố các báo giá nhập khẩu của họ. Ngoại trừ thị trường LDPE đã chạm dưới ngưỡng mới theo đúng dự báo, thị trường nhìn chung hầu như có xu hướng ổn định.

Báo giá HDPE film và LLDPE C4 film Trung Đông được ước tính không đổi hoặc giảm 10 USD/tấn, lần lượt ở mức 1260-1280 USD/tấn và 1210-1230 USD/tấn CIF Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ, chịu mức thuế hải quan 6,5%, tiền mặt. Mặc dù giá từ hầu hết các nhà sản xuất đều giảm so với tháng trước, song điều này không khiến mức giá chung thay đổi nhiều so với tuần trước.

Một số nhà cung cấp đưa ra báo giá ở phân khúc thấp của thị trường vào tháng 6 đã chọn giữ nguyên giá trong tháng này. Những người tham gia thị trường nói: “Tháng 7 có thể là tháng giảm giá cuối cùng. Một số người bán thậm chí có ý định nâng báo giá của một số nguyên liệu nhất định với lý do thiếu áp lực tồn kho.”

Import Prices– LDPE – HDPE – LLDPE – CIF Turkey

Các đợt giảm giá LDPE cũng có thể sắp ngừng lại

Báo giá LDPE nhập khẩu Trung Đông được ước tính giảm 40-50 USD/tấn, xuống còn 1450-1480 USD/tấn CIF Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ, chịu thuế hải quan 6,5%, tiền mặt. Các nguồn tin từ các nhà cung cấp trong khu vực khẳng định: “Chúng tôi đã phải giảm các báo giá LDPE ban đầu sâu hơn do sự kháng cự liên tục từ khách hàng.”

Những người tham gia thị trường cho rằng thị trường LDPE đã gần chạm đáy, đồng thời nêu cơ sở cho quan điểm của họ bằng những đợt tăng giá rõ rệt ở Trung Quốc. LDPE đã chứng kiến mức tăng lên tới 60 USD/tấn so với tuần trước, sau đà giảm mạnh nhất trong số các sản phẩm PE suốt 3 tháng qua.

Nhà sản xuất lớn của Ả Rập Xê Út dự định áp dụng chính sách tăng giá

Vào thời điểm đăng bài, một nhà sản xuất lớn của Ả Rập Xê Út vẫn chưa làm rõ những báo giá mới của họ cho Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ. Những người tham gia thị trường nói: “Nhà cung cấp này có thể sẽ giữ nguyên báo giá HDPE film, trong khi tăng báo giá LLDPE do nguồn hàng hạn chế.” Trong thực tế, điều này phù hợp với các báo cáo trước đây về tình hình hạn chế nguồn cung LLDPE với các chất phụ gia.

Những ngày lễ sắp tới khiến sự thận trọng vẫn duy trì

Sự kết hợp của việc dỡ bỏ lệnh giới nghiêm liên quan đến virus và sự phục hồi thận trọng trên thị trường PE châu Á nhờ chi phí thượng nguồn tăng cao và việc mua hàng sớm đã tạo ra một tâm lý tương đối lạc quan ở Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ. Ngoài nhu cầu ngày càng tăng từ người mua Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ, các báo giá cao hơn ở Trung Quốc và Đông Nam Á cũng đã ảnh hưởng đến tâm lý thị trường. Những đợt tăng giá gần đây đã diễn ra trong khu vực bất chấp các mối lo ngại hiện tại về Covid.

Theo dữ liệu trung bình hàng tuần từ Chỉ số Giá ChemOrbis, mức chênh lệch giữa Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ với thị trường nhập khẩu của Trung Quốc đã thu hẹp xuống còn khoảng 210 USD/tấn LDPE, 110 USD/tấn HDPE và 170 USD/tấn LLDPE film. Điều này cũng làm cơ sở cho các dự đoán rằng giá đã đạt mức ổn định và có thể chỉ có những biến động nhỏ kể từ bây giờ.

Tuy nhiên, xu hướng sẽ bị ảnh hưởng bởi sự tiến triển của nhu cầu mua hàng trong những tuần tới. Lưu ý rằng Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ đã sẵn sàng cho một kỳ nghỉ dài vào cuối tháng 7, nên một số người tham gia thị trường vẫn giữ nguyên lập trường thận trọng.

Một người mua cho biết: “Tâm lý thị trường ít nhiều đã ổn định. Chúng tôi dự đoán giá cả sẽ không giảm xuống nữa. Tuy nhiên, thị trường không mạnh như PP, giá đã đi lên vài tuần trước. Kỳ nghỉ lễ Eid al-Adha sắp tới có thể được kéo dài và làm giảm nhu cầu.”

Trong khi đó, người bán tin rằng đà tăng giá dầu thô, naphtha và ethylene sẽ giúp thị trường Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ cải thiện nhiều hơn, đặc biệt nếu châu Á duy trì xu hướng đi lên.

Được viết bởi Merve Madakbaşı – [email protected]

Nguồn: https://www.chemorbis.com/vi/

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