Sẽ là cung hay cầu để thiết lập triển vọng PP, PE ở Châu Âu?

Tâm lý trên thị trường PP và PE Châu Âu đã thay đổi vào giữa tháng Mười khi nguồn cung tổng thể giảm do thiếu nhập khẩu, sản xuất trong khu vực trục trặc và xuất khẩu tăng. Các cho rằng mức giảm có thể dừng lại trong tương lai, trong khi dự báo giá tháng Mười cho thấy xu hướng ổn định đến cao hơn một chút.

Giảm thêm trong nửa cuối tháng Mười được cho là không xảy ra

Các giao dịch trong tháng Mười đã được kết thúc với các đợt giảm giá nhỏ cho cả hai sản phẩm. Trong khi đó, các nhà cung cấp đã lấy lại niềm tin gần đây và họ không giảm giá thêm trong thời gian nửa tháng cuối.

Giá được cho là sẽ không còn khả năng giảm do sự kết hợp của netback kém ở Châu Âu và nguồn cung giảm dần trong bối cảnh khu vực ngừng hoạt động và nguồn cung nhập khẩu giảm.

Sự đảo ngược vào tháng Mười một đang được thảo luận

Các nguồn tin thị trường polyolefin Châu Âu sẽ tương thích với thị trường toàn cầu sau khi đi theo xu hướng ổn định đến giảm trong tháng thứ hai liên tiếp. Giá PP và PE có khả năng ổn định hoặc thậm chí phục hồi nhẹ. Chi phí monomer tăng cao trong bối cảnh ngừng hoạt động bảo trì và nguồn cung hạ nguồn giảm dần được cho là nguyên nhân dẫn đến kỳ vọng đảo chiều cho tháng Mười một.

Nhận thấy nguồn cung tổng thể không còn dồi dào như trước, một công ty sản xuất thành phẩm PP báo cáo, “Chúng tôi quyết định mua thêm khối lượng vì sợ rằng sau này chúng tôi có thể không tìm thấy khối lượng cần thiết. Ngay cả những mức tăng nhỏ cũng có thể được nhìn thấy vào tháng tới. ”

Cập nhật sản xuất khu vực

Các nguồn tin báo cáo rằng nguồn cung của PP nói chung đang giảm dần do các nhà máy của Braskem và SABIC ngừng hoạt động bảo trì. LyondellBasell tuyên bố bất khả kháng đối với nguồn cung cấp PPRC từ Brindisi, Ý. Trong khi đó, trường hợp bất khả kháng của Total’s PP tại Pháp vẫn được áp dụng.

Khi nói đến PE, doanh nghiệp đã báo cáo số lượng có hạn cho một số hạng nhất định. Tổng số đã tuyên bố là bất khả kháng đối với sản lượng mLLDPE từ Bỉ, trong khi LyondellBasell được cho là đã phải đối mặt với các vấn đề sản xuất tại nhà máy LDPE ở Pháp. Mặc dù không được xác nhận rộng rãi bởi các nguồn chính, SABIC cho biết đã đóng cửa nhà máy LDPE của mình ở Anh để bảo trì.

Các nhà sản xuất cũng tăng tốc xuất khẩu sang Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ, Trung Quốc và Mỹ trong những tháng qua do nhu cầu khu vực yếu. Mặc dù những điều này đã làm giảm mức cung bên trong Châu Âu, nguồn cung được cho là cân bằng với nhu cầu trong thời điểm hiện tại.

Triển vọng giằng xé giữa nhu cầu và nguồn cung cấp

Trái ngược với tâm lý thay đổi của người bán, nhu cầu vẫn là mối quan tâm chính vì nó chưa có dấu hiệu phục hồi ngay lập tức. Hơn nữa, doanh nghiệp lo ngại về nhu cầu cơ bản do một số quốc gia gia hạn các hạn chế để chống lại sự lây lan của virus. Do đó, người mua loại trừ khả năng thấy giá tăng trong tháng tới.

Tóm lại, triển vọng tháng Mười một giữa bị giằng xé giữa nhu cầu trầm lắng và nguồn cung giảm dần. Người chơi đang thảo luận về một trong những nguyên tắc cơ bản này sẽ đi đầu trong việc xác định xu hướng giá.

Một người mua cho biết, “Nhu cầu của chúng tôi hiện tại là tốt, trong khi chúng tôi không biết điều này sẽ kéo dài bao lâu trong bối cảnh các trường hợp vi rút gia tăng. Người tiêu dùng sẽ cắt giảm các chi phí không cần thiết nếu tình hình xấu đi ”.

Được viết bởi Manolya Tufan – [email protected]

Nguồn: https://www.chemorbis.com/vi/

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