Liệu cuối năm nay sẽ có sự khác biệt đối với xuất khẩu PE của Mỹ?

Kể từ cuối tháng Tám, hàng PE của Mỹ hầu như không có mặt tại các thị trường giao ngay lớn do sản xuất bị gián đoạn sau các trận bão. Việc thiếu nguồn gốc xuất xứ chính thống này đã góp phần vào mức tăng liên tiếp ở Châu Á và Trung Đông trong khi sự vắng mặt của nó cũng khiến cho thị trường Châu Âu giảm dần trong tháng Chín và tháng Mười.

Xuất khẩu PE của Mỹ từ tháng Một đến tháng Tám đã ở mức kỷ lục

Theo dữ liệu của ChemOrbis, Mỹ đã xuất khẩu một lượng PE kỷ lục trong 8 tháng đầu năm 2020, ngay trước khi mùa bão tàn phá các nhà máy sản xuất. Khoảng 7 triệu tấn PE đã được xuất khẩu trong khung thời gian này, tăng hơn 1 triệu tấn hay 21% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái.

Sau khi được công bố, số liệu thống kê tháng Chín sẽ cho thấy mức độ ảnh hưởng của việc ngừng hoạt động do bão ảnh hưởng đến xuất khẩu.

Tình trạng sản xuất hiện tại

Theo Báo cáo điều khiển thị trường hàng tuần của Resin Technology Incorporated (RTI), các vấn đề thời tiết được giải quyết triệt để tại các nhà máy ethylene và hiện tại sản xuất ethylene đang vượt quá nhu cầu PE. Để phản ánh tình hình này, có một dòng hàng hóa ethylene từ biển sâu đã được cung cấp cho Trung Quốc, giảm giá ethylene trong Châu Á .

Về phía hạ nguồn, cũng có một danh sách dài các nhà sản xuất ngừng hoạt động trong tháng Chín, kéo sang tháng Mười. Những nhà máy này cũng đã gần như hoàn toàn trở lại trạng thái bình thường.

Xuất khẩu PE thì thế nào? Có áp lực nào sắp tới từ việc sản xuất trở lại không?

Theo các nguồn tin, xuất khẩu PE ra khỏi Mỹ tiếp tục yếu. Hàng tồn kho vẫn ở mức thấp trên khắp Bắc Mỹ và chưa có nhiều giao dịch sôi động.

Doanh nghiệp trên khắp Châu Á, Châu Âu và Trung Đông cũng xác nhận rằng không có nhiều giá chào của Mỹ được nghe thấy, chứ chưa nói đến mức giá cạnh tranh như trường hợp của những năm trước.

Hàng hóa PE của Mỹ sẽ không tràn ngập thị trường trong năm nay chứ?

Sau sự khởi động của các công suất lớn ở Mỹ trong ba đến bốn năm qua, PE Mỹ phần lớn đã được giải phóng như một phần của hoạt động tồn kho trước cuối năm. Rất nhiều hàng PE đã được cung cấp rầm rộ trên toàn cầu trong suốt tháng Mười, tháng Mười một và một phần vào tháng Mười hai trong những năm trước.

Doanh nghiệp hiện đang cân nhắc rộng rãi liệu điều này có bị hoãn lại trong năm nay sau khi khởi động lại bị trì hoãn và lượng dự trữ thấp trong nước, đặc biệt là khi một cơn bão mới, Zeta, mạnh lên thành bão cấp 2 vào thứ Tư khi nó đến gần Bờ Vịnh. Nếu Zeta tấn công Louisiana, nơi LyondellBasell và Sasol tổ chức các máy bẻ khóa ethylene và các đơn vị PE, thì đây sẽ là cơn bão có tên thứ năm làm được như vậy trong mùa giải này, lập kỷ lục cho tiểu bang.

Tuy nhiên, một lưu ý cần chú ý: Thị trường khá phức tạp
Mặc dù hàng tồn kho PE của Mỹ vẫn không cao để thúc đẩy một đợt suy thoái cuối năm truyền thống, nhưng nhu cầu vẫn mong manh trên các thị trường toàn cầu trong bối cảnh đại dịch bùng phát. Giờ đây, các nhà máy PE của Mỹ đã hoạt động trở lại phần lớn, nguồn cung của Mỹ có thể được cải thiện sẽ xảy ra vào thời điểm nhu cầu đang giảm tốc trên toàn cầu.

Do đó, các chào giá PE xuất khẩu từ Hoa Kỳ được đánh giá thấp hơn một chút trong tuần này.

Tại Trung Quốc, mùa cao điểm gần như đã kết thúc và người chơi cảm thấy giá HDPE và LLDPE đang ở gần đỉnh cao vì mức kháng cự đang tăng lên đối với xu hướng tăng đã có từ khi chạm đáy vào cuối tháng Ba. Tại Đông Nam Á, một điểm đến chính khác cho xuất khẩu PE của Mỹ, nhu cầu vốn đã khá yếu, phải vật lộn với vụ COVID-19 tăng vọt.

Khung cảnh ở Châu Âu cũng không khác mấy. Sau khi thị trường đi theo xu hướng ổn định đến giảm trong tháng Chín và tháng Mười, người bán đã bày tỏ ý định tăng giá chào PE tháng Mười một của họ vào tuần trước, đặc biệt là tăng cường hỗ trợ từ việc thiếu hàng Mỹ. Tuy nhiên, những lo ngại về sự bùng phát của coronavirus làn sóng thứ hai đang khiến nhu cầu giảm sút và các mục tiêu tăng giá được tìm thấy còn nhiều tranh cãi.

Điều gì đã xảy ra trở lại vào quý IV năm 2018 và năm 2019?

Hãy nhớ giá PE của Mỹ phát triển như thế nào trong quý cuối cùng của hai năm trước ở hai thị trường lớn, Đông Nam Á và Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ, nơi ChemOrbis công bố chỉ số hàng tuần cho giá PE xuất xứ Mỹ.

Vào năm 2018, đó là tháng Mười một khi suy thoái bắt đầu theo đúng nghĩa đen, trong khi đó là tháng Mười năm 2019 với xu hướng giảm đã nổi bật trước đó.

Được viết bởi Esra Ersöz – [email protected]

Nguồn: https://www.chemorbis.com/vi/

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