Giá dầu thô cao nhất trong nhiều năm đóng góp vào siêu bão polyme

Một siêu bão của các yếu tố – bao gồm sự thắt chặt nguồn cung kéo dài, tăng trưởng nhu cầu cũng như tình trạng hỗn loạn vận tải đang hoành hành – đã tạo ra bầu không khí tăng giá trên thị trường polyme chủ yếu là kể từ nửa cuối năm 2020, bất chấp một số đợt điều chỉnh giảm giá nhỏ tại các khu vực khác nhau trên thế giới.

Cuộc khủng hoảng năng lượng gần đây dường như đã ghi tên vào danh sách các yếu tố tăng giá trên thị trường polyme khi ngày càng trở nên sâu sắc trên toàn cầu. Trung Quốc và Ấn Độ đang phải đối mặt với tình trạng thiếu than trầm trọng trong khi châu Âu đang vật lộn với tình trạng thiếu nhiên liệu và khí đốt tự nhiên.

Là một phần của cuộc khủng hoảng này, giá dầu Brent tương lai chạm đạt mức cao nhất trong ba năm qua vào thứ Ba, vượt mức 83 USD/thùng và giá dầu WTI NYMEX tương lai tăng mạnh hơn khi chứng kiến mức cao nhất trong 7 năm qua, đạt gần 80 USD/thùng. Mặc dù chúng đã được điều chỉnh giảm giá trong những ngày tiếp theo trong tuần, nhưng vẫn đang duy trì gần mức cao nhất trong nhiều năm.

Một nhà phân tích thị trường cho biết: “Một số đợt giảm giá hàng ngày sẽ tự nhiên xảy ra trong tuần này nhưng điều đó không thay đổi tình hình tăng giá cơ bản của dầu mỏ.”

Lượng tồn kho thấp hiện được coi là nguyên nhân khiến giá dầu tăng đột biến trong thời gian gần đây. Theo Bloomberg, thị trường dầu thô đã thắt chặt đáng kể nhờ sự phục hồi kinh tế sau đại dịch và gián đoạn nguồn cung do bão ở Vịnh Mexico của Mỹ. Đà tăng giá khí đốt tự nhiên cũng thúc đẩy triển vọng nhu cầu đối với các sản phẩm dầu mỏ trong sản xuất điện và đang tăng cường áp lực lạm phát lên nền kinh tế toàn cầu. Goldman ước tính nhu cầu dầu từ việc chuyển đổi điện năng sẽ tăng thêm 650.000 thùng/ngày vào cuối năm nay.

Hơn nữa, quyết định của OPEC và các đồng minh về việc giữ nguyên kế hoạch tăng dần sản lượng và không tăng thêm tiếp tục củng cố đà tăng giá dầu này vào đầu tuần.

Crude oil - Prices - NYMEX - Brent

Dầu thô trở lại củng cố xu hướng tăng giá polyme

Trong khi đó, ở chuỗi hạ nguồn, tâm lý tăng giá đã và đang lan tràn trên thị trường do chưa có giải pháp cho các vấn đề về nguồn cung của nhiều loại polyme. Giờ đây, một số sản phẩm polyme và các khu vực nhạy cảm hơn với sự chuyển động của dầu thô – như styrene hoặc Trung Quốc – có cơ sở để đứng vững trên đà tăng giá mới.

Những người tham gia thị trường PVC không còn ngạc nhiên khi chứng kiến mức giá cao kỷ lục mỗi tuần, vì đó dường như là điều bình thường mới trên toàn cầu.

Do vấn đề nguồn cung không quá nghiêm trọng nên tình hình thị trường PP và PE không gay gắt như PVC. Sau khi đạt mức cao kỷ lục trong nửa đầu năm, thị trường polyolefin phần lớn được điều chỉnh trong quý 3. Gần đây, chúng lại leo dốc trong sức nóng của cuộc khủng hoảng năng lượng ngày càng sâu sắc.

Thị trường styrene cũng có xu hướng tăng giá nhẹ hơn so với các loại polyme khác. Đặc biệt, nửa cuối năm đã có nhiều biến động đối với nhiều loại styrene. Tuy nhiên, chúng vẫn đang ở mức cao nhất trong nhiều năm qua.

Được viết bởi Esra Ersöz – [email protected]

Nguồn: chemorbis.com/vi/

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